Iran Holds the Keys to Deterrence… and Mearsheimer Warns
Prominent American political theorist John Mearsheimer has warned against relying on military options against Iran, stressing that attacking its nuclear facilities would not guarantee the elimination of its capabilities and could, in fact, lead to adverse consequences.
In a video interview with The Spectator magazine, Mearsheimer said, “Even if the United States decides to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, there is no guarantee that it will be able to destroy them completely or prevent Iran from enriching uranium again.”
He pointed out that the most such strikes could achieve is delaying Iran’s nuclear program by two to three years — but Tehran is capable of rebuilding it.
Mearsheimer called for a return to diplomatic engagement, arguing that “the best possible outcome would be reaching an agreement similar to the 2015 nuclear deal, where Iran is allowed limited enrichment under strict restrictions on production and storage, with sensitive materials removed from the country.”
In assessing Iran’s military capabilities, Mearsheimer asserted that Tehran possesses “a massive arsenal of precise and lethal ballistic and cruise missiles,” capable of targeting U.S. bases in the region as well as critical infrastructure in Israel and the Gulf states. He added: “Even if Hamas or Hezbollah are neutralized, that does not change the reality that Iran is capable of inflicting widespread damage in the region.”
He warned against underestimating Tehran’s power, stating: “Believing that Iran is a weak state incapable of responding is foolish thinking.” He emphasized that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz and threaten global markets with precise strikes.
Elsewhere in his remarks, Mearsheimer accused Israel of seeking to replicate the Syrian scenario in Iran, saying: “Israel’s ultimate goal is not just to stop the nuclear program, but to dismantle Iran itself into smaller entities.”
The American scholar concluded by saying that even if Iran were to abandon its entire nuclear program — which is highly unlikely — it would not end the conflict with Israel, “because Israel’s objectives go far beyond the nuclear issue.”
These remarks reflect growing concern within American intellectual and strategic circles over how to handle Iran, especially amid stalled negotiations and escalating regional tensions.